Assessing Fragile States in 2014


Assessing Fragile States in 2014

18 Jul 2014

The Fragile States Index 2014, recently released by the Fund for Peace, finds that South Sudan is the most fragile state in the world, overtaking Somalia for the first time in six years.

The Fund for Peace, an independent, non-profit research and educational organisation that works to prevent violent conflict and promote sustainable security publishes the Fragile States Index annually. This year's report was released on 24 June 2014.

The 2014 Fragile States Index, the tenth edition of the annual Index, comprises data collected between January 1, 2013 and December 31, 2013. The ranking of 178 nations is based on their levels of stability and the pressures they face and from the Fund for Peace's comprehensive assessment tool, which, among many others, includes factors such as pressures and measures related to ethnic, communal, sectarian and religious violence. This year the Index also looks at trend analysis of fragile states since it was first published 10 years ago.

Key Findings
  • South Sudan climbs to the top of the Fragile States Index 2014 replacing Somalia;
  • The most-worsened country for 2014 is the Central African Republic
  • Syria is the second most-worsened country for 2014 and now ranks further down the fragile end of the Index. After ranking 48th as recently as 2011, Syria now finds itself at 15th;
  • Libya is the third most-worsened country for 2014;
  • Despite concerns, particularly about its nuclear program, Iran is the most-improved nation in 2014;
  • The ten years of FSI data shows that in the period since 2006, the greatest gains have been made by Bosnia-Herzegovina and Indonesia;
  • The most-worsened countries looking at the long-term trends are Libya, Senegal, Mali, Guinea Bissau, the Central African Republic and Syria;
  • Sierra Leone has seen improving fortunes. In 2005 the country was ranked in the top 10 fragile states, but this year (2014) it has become the first country ever to exit the "Alert" category.
A summary of the Fragile States Index Rankings 2014

At the top end of the Index:

Very High Alert

1. South Sudan

2. Somalia

3. Central African Republic

4. Congo, Democratic Republic

5. Sudan

High Alert

6. Chad

7. Afghanistan

8. Yemen

9. Haiti

10. Pakistan

11. Zimbabwe

12. Guinea

13. Iraq

14. Cote d'Ivoire

15. Syria

16. Guinea Bissau


17. Nigeria

18. Kenya

19. Ethiopia

19. Niger

21. Burundi

22. Uganda

23. Eritrea

24. Liberia

24. Myanmar

26. North Korea

27. Cameroon

28. Mauritania

29. Bangladesh

30. Sri Lanka

31. Egypt

31. Nepal

31. Timor-Leste

34. Rwanda

At the lower end of the Index:

Very Stable

154. Czech Republic

155. Uruguay

156. South Korea

157. Japan

158. Singapore

159. United States

160. France

161. United Kingdom

162. Portugal

163. Slovenia

164. Belgium

165. Germany


166. Netherlands

167. Austria

168. Canada

169. Australia

170. Ireland

171. Iceland

172. Luxembourg

173. New Zealand

174. Switzerland

175. Norway

176. Denmark

177. Sweden

Very Sustainable

178. Finland

Background summary on Methodology

Millions of documents are analysed every year, and by applying highly specialised search parameters, scores are apportioned for every country based on twelve key political, social and economic indicators and over 100 sub-indicators.

The twelve indicators which constitute the Index are:

Social and Economic Indicators

1. Demographic Pressures

2. Refugees and IDPs

3. Uneven Economic Development

4. Group Grievance (this includes pressures and measures related to ethnic, communal, sectarian and religious violence)

5. Human Flight and Brain Drain

6. Poverty and Economic Decline

Political and Military Indicators

7. State Legitimacy

8. Public Services

9. Human Rights and Rule of Law (this includes pressures and measures on human trafficking, civil liberties and religious persecution)

10. Security Apparatus

11. Factionalised Elites

12. External Intervention

You can read more on the Fragile States Index here.

This article summarises an external report, and is not to be taken as the view of the Tony Blair Faith Foundation. 


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